ARe Shingle going to be a thing of the past?

Here is a very interesting News article, titled, ​"Metal vs. Shingles: Florida’s asphalt roofs under scrutiny as insurers push for change" that will affect EVERY homeowner in Florida. 

www.yahoo.com/news/metal-vs-shingles-florida-asphalt-224955496.html

I have been predicting this change for several years. The current home insurance model is unsustainable. Insurance companies are bleeding money due to roof claims. That is what is driving the recent spike in home insurance costs. My personal home soared to $9k a year and then we were dropped. I got quotes as high as $12k before I was able to find a more affordable alternative of "Only" $6.5k! And I HAVE a metal roof!
This explanation may get a little long, but this is what is going on.
First off the Florida building code states that if 50% of the roof system needs to be replaced, then the entire roof must be replaced. (That used to be 25%. But the insurance industry got that changed as of July 1, 2022.) But still, roofers, especially some of the less scrupulous ones, can easily find damage on enough older shingles to meet that 50% rule. Due to the interlocking nature of shingles, when a shingle is replaced, many times they have to replace a large portion around it.
Secondly, the Insurance industry covers roofing as a "replacement" item. Even if the roof has been on the home for 15 years, they have to replace the entire roof. A "30 year shingle" here in Central Florida is really a 15-18 year product. The year round sunshine is reason we love to live here but is also the reason that they do not last. As they age, shingles become brittle and start to lose their granular content. Go look in your rain gutter sometime and check out the sandbar of granules in there... and that is just from regular wear... When storms happen, an older shingle is much more easily damaged by flying debris or hail. They also start to lose their adhesion. So when wind get under them, they fold back and break. So starting around the 10 year mark, shingles here in Central Florida have become susceptible to damage in a typical summer afternoon storm. Much more so in an "Named" storm.
So, what is the fix? Well, I am not an expert on how the insurance industry works from the inside, but it seems to me that there are a few options.
Option 1: Change the industry to adopt an Actual Cash Value (ACV) type system vs. a replacement system. Basically that is a "pro-rated" system. Like a road hazard warranty on your tires, you get some credit for your roof's life that is left when you make a claim. But if you have had your roof installed for a number of years, you don't get a "free" new roof. There are many challenges to this system, but I see this as a change that is on the horizon.
Option 2: The insurance industry stops writing coverage for a shingle roof. That is what the subject article is suggesting. This has happened before with other "defective" home products. For instance, getting insurance for a home with Polybutylene piping or a Federal Pacific Electric (FPE) panel or single strand aluminum branch wiring is difficult to the point of being almost impossible. Fortunately, those are fairly inexpensive to swap out or remediate. Replacing a roof is a much more costly affair.
Metal roofs have their own drawbacks.
Some HOAs will not allow them because they do not meet the "aesthetic" of the neighborhood. If a sweeping change to the insurance industry happens, then the HOAs would be forced to change.
Metal roofs are much more expensive than shingles. So when a roof claim does happen on a metal roof, it is a much larger hit on the insurance company. So I assure you that the prices will not be coming down much just because you have a metal roof. That may ease the burden on the insurance industry a bit, which would open the door to more companies ... which would create better competition... supply and demand and all that.. but let's not go down that rabbit hole...
Metal roofs are.... metal. So you are living in an large metal bowl. Cell service is directly impacted. If you are in an area with low cell service already, you would have to get a booster etc. for your home. They are not super expensive, but it is an additional cost.
So, in the end, don't expect any relief from high costs of home insurance any time soon.
Sincerely,
Bo Passen, Passen Inspections LLC
Florida Association of Building Inspectors, Master Professional Inspector
By the way... as a little side note... the shingles in the picture headlining the article are being installed incorrectly... #doyoureallyknowwhatyouarebuying #passeninspections